How I’m Taking Crypto Profit Without Screwing Up the Entire Trade.
It's as much a game of stopping self destructive behaviour as it is getting in the right assets.
Today’s article is free—thanks to the growing number of paid subscribers who, for a small fee, help me grow this newsletter and the community around it.
If you’ve been milking the free stuff, and I’ve probably already made you some money, it might be time to take the plunge and go paid (sent with love).
I know this story better than most.
Just because you screenshotted your gains doesn’t mean you’re in the clear. You’ve come too far to mess up the whole trade now.
I remember sitting in that fishbowl of an office—where dreams went to die—getting pinged nonstop with OpenSea notifications. People were throwing 60 ETH offers at me for a single NFT.
I got sucked into the "up only" mindset. Told myself it was smart to go harder. Worked even longer hours just to fund my JPEG addiction.
But clarity only really comes through pain.
And we’ve just lived through the longest, most brutal bear market in crypto history—one kicked off by pandemic stimulus and capped with record inflation.
That pain looks like it's finally easing.
I’ve made every mistake in the book:
— Took out leveraged loans on NFTs
— Jumped between narratives when I was already in profit
— Round-tripped my whole portfolio because I believed “this is the exponential age”
Turns out, this stuff takes longer to play out than people want to admit.
What fascinates me are the extremes.
Some folks are still so traumatised by the last cycle they don't believe they deserve another shot.
Others are ready to remortgage their house to max out their Bitcoin position.
But the truth? The answer’s probably somewhere in the middle.
Especially when it comes to taking profits.
You don’t need to be a hero.
You just need to avoid being the person who guessed wrong and gave it all back.
Build a rules-based selling framework.
The first rule is to make it fit your life, not someone else’s.
We all want to maximise profit, but you’ll never time the exact top. Or the bottom.
Setting sell markers based on time, not price, has worked for me. Basing them on volatile price targets is just too stressful. I hear people say things like, “When SUI gets to $10, I will sell.” It makes me wince, and I think, “You’re in for a rough ride.” Even though my conviction is that it may well go far beyond that…
If prices climb over the next few months, take 20% off the table. Pay off some debt. Buy the thing you’ve been putting off. You’ll hate selling when the hype is peaking—everyone does. But it gives you clarity. It breaks the cycle of constantly asking, “Is this the top?”
It allows you to extend the cycle.
It also gives the rest of your position more time to run. If things pump again, you can take another slice. The answer is that you don’t know where the price action will go.
Particularly if you're in altcoins, you need a selling framework (not necessarily Bitcoin). Unless you’re genuinely fine with 70% drawdowns, then crack on.
One thing people often overlook with newer networks is the vesting schedules and token unlocks. In a bull market, you don’t feel it—demand masks the dilution. But when liquidity dries up, that steady stream of new tokens (1.8% monthly for SUI) hits the market and triggers brutal drawdowns. Just ask anyone who held Ethereum down to $80 or Solana at $12.
So, set your sell markers.
For me, August (2025) feels like a good window. I’ll explain why in a sec. Then maybe again toward the end of the year. Again, we’re not going to know exactly.
Iiquidity is above all-time highs and increasing over the next few months, so it’s likely we’ll see this reflected in asset prices.
I’m in this long term, I also want to be holding a serious position heading into the next cycle. That way, if there’s a big correction, it’s not a panic—it’s an opportunity to add.
People get stuck in this either-or mindset. One or the other. This or that. But the game isn’t red or blue—it’s purple. The real answers live in the grey.
We’re in the fastest-growing asset class in history, so I never want to be entirely out of the trade, but I do want to take profits that let me sleep at night.
Stop using the 4-year cycle (do this instead).
I speak to people daily who still reference the four-year cycle—originally tied to the 2008 financial crisis—that’s now become a staple in crypto conversations, especially as more people have skin in the game.
The problem that’s as obvious as a slap in the face is that if everyone’s playing the cycle and selling early to prepare for a “crypto winter,” we might not get the kind of deep drawdown we’ve seen before. You could end up missing the entire trade by trying to be too clever.
That’s why I think relying on the four-year cycle has become a mid-curve take.
Let’s rewind. In 2008, central banks gave themselves a debt jubilee, slashed interest rates to zero, and kicked off a massive liquidity wave. It was also the start of a U.S. election cycle—Obama vs. McCain—and the birth of Bitcoin.
Hardwired into Bitcoin’s code is a halving every four years, cutting miner rewards in half. This is designed to trigger a supply squeeze, and that’s why people link it to the recurring bullish cycles in crypto.
But the real reason those patterns exist? Liquidity.
Back in the day, central banks rolled over debt on 3—to 5-year terms. That refinancing cycle—not some magical alignment—was the true driver behind these repeating market moves.
Then came Trump.
The dollar surged to all-time highs, and he used that strength as leverage in trade negotiations with China. Since the dollar acts as the world’s liquidity valve, that spike tightened global financial conditions and delayed the usual crypto cycle.
That’s why some investors think the cycle is ending. But they’re looking in the wrong place.
The signal you should be watching is the ISM—the Institute for Supply Management.
They survey 50,000 supply chain managers across the U.S. to measure economic sentiment. When the ISM moves from below 50 to above 60, it typically kicks off a growth phase that lasts 9 to 14 months.
Watch the ISM. That’s how you squeeze the most out of the crypto bet.
Right now, we’re still under 50, but it oscillates like a heart rate monitor. As financial conditions improve, expect it to climb along with Crypto prices.
Most importantly, the ISM doesn’t just tell you when to buy—it tells you when to sell.
When it pushes up toward 60, that’s your signal that things are getting overheated. It's time to start trimming.
3 legs of the banana zone.
These GMI charts get recycled more than a GaryVee quote on LinkedIn.
But they’re not wrong.
In each of the last crypto cycles, Julien Bittel pointed out that bull runs tend to have three legs, with two major corrective phases in between. And right now, it looks like we’ve cleared phase one.
When the tariff drama hit and the dollar went to Valhalla, crypto prices tanked. My timeline was flooded with “it’s over” takes.
But selling pressure has dropped off, and we’ve formed a classic wedge pattern—often a setup for a move higher (I wrote this part yesterday — it’s now moved higher). That next move could take us into what the Real Vision crew has cheekily dubbed the “Banana Zone Phase 2”.
Translation: buckle up.
With the worst of the tariff news behind us, a bit of daylight in the Ukraine/Russia conflict, and big pushes to onshore U.S. manufacturing, there’s a case for a strong leg up over the next few months.
That said, GMI also expects a second correction that’ll shake people out and convince them the bull run is over. But according to the pattern, it won’t be. There’s still more ceiling above us.
So, maybe use this as a rough barometer. This current leg could run for 3 months, which could be a good window to trim.
If you’re up, don’t get greedy—take some profits like we talked about earlier.
Final Thoughts.
Crypto will treat you so much better if you have a framework.
Not one built on hype, impulse, or reaction to every headline—but something structured, calm, and grounded.
Case in point: while writing this very section, SUI’s protocol was hacked for $250 million. The price dropped just 3%. The team at Cetus patched the vulnerability quickly, and all customer funds will be honoured.
But let that serve as a reminder—this space isn’t risk-free. That’s exactly why profit-taking isn’t just smart. It’s good for the soul.
BUT! Do it with a framework. We know the ISM will likely run hot into Q1 of 2026, so we have time. Work backwards from there.
If the GMI model continues to hold, we’re just entering leg 2 of this cycle—the explosive middle phase. Historically, this runs for about three months, which takes us right into August.
So, if you’re up, take something off the table. You’ll probably hate doing it, but as one reader, Adrian, perfectly put it, it makes you feel lighter.
That lightness matters. Because it lets you hold the rest of your portfolio longer, without panic. Maybe you sell another slice toward the end of the year. And if we get lucky with an extended cycle or enter a real "golden age"? Sell another 20%.
So you’re still in the trade, still playing the long game, and actually making a profit.
2030 will be here before you know it, and I want to be exposed to the fastest-growing asset class in recorded history when it arrives.
That’s the plan.
One last thing: give your profits purpose.
Idle funds drift into bad trades and shiny distractions.
Use them wisely—pay off the house, clear your debt, book that trip, buy some breathing room.
And whatever you do, keep one eye on NFTs.
That’s where the next big rotation is headed.
If this gave you any value, insight, or even just a new way to look at things—send it to a friend or family member who needs to see it.
It means more than you know, and it helps this reach the people who actually care.